Napkin Math: Intuitive Thinking for Complex Modeling

Overview / concept

With recent advances in statistical techniques and computing power, decision science methods have increasingly focused on complex and computationally intensive modeling. This course organized by investigators from INFORM Africa research hub focuses on an often-neglected skill that remains critical for policy models: developing intuition for simple mathematical models (i.e., napkin math) that can answer policy questions as well as inform development and critical evaluation of more complex simulation models. This competency can help researchers to identify important potential areas of research, find and understand errors in code or thinking, and make conclusions clear and robust. It can also provide consumers of research with a starting point for critical evaluation of modeling papers. Course objectives include:

• Identifying how simple mathematical models can add value at different steps of the research process (e.g. idea generation, gut-checking results, understanding model robustness)
• Reviewing useful techniques for napkin math (e.g. understanding when simple arithmetic and algebra are sufficient to provide basic intuition, applying Bayes rule)
• Working through practical examples inspired by current events and peer-reviewed papers
• Discussing tradeoffs and interplay between simple and more complex models in terms of capturing essential drivers of system dynamics